May 24, 2006
Posted in Media
Can Science Predict The Next American Idol Winner?
There is an interesting story on a Hitwise blog (via MIT Advertising Lab). If you believe that science can accurately predict the outcome, you may not want to look.
Bill Tancer from Hitwise gives a compelling analysis using mostly search engine statistics. We will all find out if Bill’s prediction comes true tonight. Taylor Hicks or Katharine McPhee?
Comments
I wonder if the Vegas odds reflect this.
Science is the organized body of thereoms that results from forming hypotheses based on empirical evidence, evaluating those by systematic and repeatable testing.
This is guesswork based on questionable data, pure and simple.
I would put this in the category of Pop Science. It sure isn’t going to change the world.
The hypothesis: The American Idol winner can be determined by analyzing Hitwise search engine statistics the week before the announcement.
The empirical evidence: Observation of Hitwise search statistics and comparison to who actually won.
Repeatable testing: Long term observation of hypothesis and winner/statistics correlation.
Hypotheses, by there very nature, usually begin as educated guesses, and the data should be assumed to be questionable until proven otherwise.
Looks like statistical science to me.
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