Only A Matter Of Time Before Android Is Number 1

With the latest smartphone stats released from ComScore, Android has surged ahead of iOS in total US smartphone subscribers - and is in position to knock off RIM as the number one very soon (if it hasn’t already)

In August 2010, RIM sat solidly at the top of the pecking order, with 37.6% of the total US smartphone subscriber base. Apple was second with 24.2%, and Google held a healthy third with 19.6%. But given the fact that the Android OS has been the hottest selling mobile OS for almost two quarters, most experts were predicting Android to overtake Apple in late 2010 or early 2011.

And it did.

Google shot ahead in the total subscriber base, gaining 6.4% of the market in a single month to top Apple for the first time ever. What is most striking, however, is that most of the subscribers seem to be jumping off RIM and onto Android, with RIM losing 4.1% of the market. If these numbers continue at their current rate, Android will surpass RIM as the number one mobile OS sometime in December 2010 or January 2011.

One development that could slow Android’s assault is the emergence of the Windows phone as a contender in the mobile market place. But while this might slow the Android growth a bit, it will not stop it, nor will it do anything to alleviate the user hemorrhaging from RIM. When the dust settles after Q1 2011, I expect to see Google atop the mobile OS list, followed by Apple, RIM, and a rising Microsoft.