Steve Rubel Goes Out On The Prediction Limb

This is what Rubel says:

“By January 2014 I will wager that in the US almost all forms of tangible media will either be in sharp decline or completely extinct. I am not just talking about print, but all tangible forms of media - newspapers, magazines, books, DVDs, boxed software and video games.”

That’s five year’s away. If he was right – and I am not sure I can buy his prediction – would this be the time to buy a Barnes & Noble franchise? A newspaper? A paper mill? Would it be time to start a new print-based magazine? Would you want to be developing software that you distribute in physical form (CD or DVD) with fancy packaging. If he is only partially right the aforementioned would be risky plays.

According to the interactive poll in the article, over 70 percent of the respondents think he is 1) crazy in his prediction or 2) too aggressive on his timetable for the demise of tangible media. The reason that media’s future is difficult to tell is that the future rarely extrapolates well from the present. New things and trends yet to surface will affect the transition. However, even if you believe Rubel’s prediction harbors a kernel of truth, the next five years should be quite a ride in the media business.