The Future According To Gates

Bill Gates never stops predicting. Just last week, he forecasted a rocky transition for traditional media as they shift to a more online-focused model. Bill’s perspectives are always attention-worthy, and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has examined his predictions over the years. Here’s a sampling from the story:

The hits

Microsoft CEO Summit, 1997: “Within 10 years the majority of all adults will be using electronic mail and living a form of that Web lifestyle.”

Comdex, 1996: Gates spoke of a “substitution effect” that shifts people to the web and away from printed publications.

“The Road Ahead,” 1995: “You’ll watch a program when it’s convenient for you instead of when a broadcaster chooses to air it. You’ll shop, order food, contact friends, or publish information for others to use when and as you want to.”

The misses

Comdex, 2001: “So next year a lot of people in the audience, I hope, will be taking their notes with those Tablet PCs.”

“The Road Ahead,” 1995: “When wallet PCs have become ubiquitous, we can eliminate the bottlenecks that plague airport terminals, theaters and other places where people queue up to show their identification or a ticket.”

The future

More recently, Bill has predicted:

• Reading will become an online-only activity.
• Traditional broadcast television will no longer be competitive.
• Yellow page use will drop to near zero percent within five years.
• Tech tools will converge and “the phone is going to be the PC; the PC is going to be the phone.”

Based on Bill’s past accuracy, he’ll likely be correct on one or two of those predictions.