The Hype Cycle

Sometimes technology is its own worst enemy. That is made evident every year when Gartner releases its “hype cycles” like the Gartner 2008 Emerging Technology Hype Cycle shown above (click to enlarge). Many of the technologies listed here will no doubt be immensely important to businesses in the future. Unfortunately, hype cycles often illustrate that there is almost always a substantial time lag between something that seems so immediately important to a small group of early adopters until it actually does enter the economic or business toolkit mainstream.

Because Sundog is a marketing and technology company, we are significantly exposed to most of these “edge” technologies on a regular basis. This technology can be an elixir that generates enthusiasm, but like all businesspeople we sometimes have to be diligent and patient until a critical mass is reached and the hype meets reality. In some cases, that patience is challenging. For example, pundits have talked about the adoption of mobile technologies for marketing purposes for years. It seemed like “next year” was always going to be the year. This has been going on for about five years now! Well it looks like the time for mobile as a marketing platform is finally here or near, but there are probably three factors coming together that have made mobile marketing feasible: 1) the increasing number of smart phones and very smart phones (iPhone, G1, etc.), 2) social networking made even more ubiquitous through cell phone usage, and 3) increasingly sophisticated wireless coverage, i.e., 3G.

Another trend that surprised even our company in its swift marketplace acceptance and adoption is cloud computing and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platforms. The timing on these technologies seemed to go from mild interest a couple of years ago to top priorities for many companies today.

Speaking of priorities, Gartner provides a tool that explains the phases of the hype cycle and assembles a priority matrix for technology planners (see their priority matrix chart for emerging technologies at the bottom of this post). The phases of the hype cycle include:

1. Technology Trigger
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations
3. Trough of Disillusionment
4. Slope of Enlightenment
5. Plateau of Productivity

In addition, Gartner also has a book and a blog on the subject. The Emerging Technologies hype cycle is just one of dozens of hype cycles that Gartner tracks.

Remember, some technologies that are looming on the horizon might not need to be fully embraced today, but anybody who is going to invest in technology solutions in the near future would be best to explore how future solutions will affect current priorities and expenditures.

Gartner Emerging Technologies Prioriy Matrix