Where Is Television Headed?

The television environment is undergoing profound change. Even the word “television” is becoming ambiguous. Similar to its electronic broadcast counterpart—radio—it is difficult to define what the term television embodies. Television has moved from broadcast, to cable, to satellite and now the Internet. Television is used as a technology term, an entertainment industry term, an advertising term and as an object term.

Is a television show you download and watch on your iPod still television? Is a 30-second video commercial someone produces and broadcasts solely on YouTube a television commercial? How about a show you watch only on your laptop—a television show? Is Seinfeld on a cell phone television? It may be easier to call it television if the programming originated from that source, but as more video content springs from sources other than the television programming industry, the more abstruse the television concept becomes.

The changes in television are playing havoc with the advertising industry because the neat Nielsen metrics that have ruled the media buying industry in the past are eroding. Even when Nielsen is able to get a grip on tracking audiences, the continued trend of multitasking is making measurement statistics dubious at best. TiVo and the ever-increasing number of downloadable shows allow consumers the option to timeshift and placeshift their video entertainment and it makes measurement a difficult task indeed. Uncertainty about traditional measurement models is no doubt one of the reasons that more big advertisers are demanding ROI metrics. It is also one of the reasons that online advertising is seeing the biggest growth: it is easier to measure actions than eyeballs.

As I have said before, television is NOT going away. The early adopters and new technology pundits of video innovations made possible by the Internet often overestimate the speed of the transition from one video era to another. Meanwhile, many in the entrenched television industry and advertising aristocracy hang on to the old world with blinders affixed as long as the business model continues to feed their coffers. However, there is growing evidence that the networks are beginning to see other video programming platforms as a source of new opportunities.

Television seems to be going two directions. People are buying ever-larger high definition television sets. As the mandatory February 2007 transition date from analog to digital television nears, there will be some big implications for the advertising industry. The other major trend is toward anywhere/anytime programming often delivered in a smaller format: iPods, laptops, desktop computers and mobile phones. Pardon the pun, but the picture will get confusing. The consumers will win with a widening array of video programming available on multiple platforms. However, for the television and advertising industries, the transition to multiple platform video programming is likely to cause more consternation.